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Arab Revolution- where too

03/02/2012

To my opinion the Arab countries are about to divide economically into several categories.

1.The oil rich countries like the Saudis and its satellites, will probably turn their wealth into creating a modern state. Their perspective of enjoying high income out of oil for the next 40 years, will give them enough time to make a change towards modernity. The only question is how they will be influenced by their “gast arbaiters”? (One third of the population in Saudia are foreign workers, mainly from other Muslim countries).

2. Iraq will probably become a pro Iranian country. In the best case it will have the position of inter mediator between Iran and the rest of the world, (mainly USA).

3. Syria, Jordan+Palestine and Egypt, due to their large population, no oil wealth and no capacity to secure descent standard of living on the short term have very limited options. The new Islamic leadership, that will emerge out of the revolution, has no tools to solve the economic misery of the population. Hard to predict to where these countries are heading to, but even harder is to believe that western style economic and political system will emerge out of this situation. Most probably they will end with some kind of dictatorship, with either military or Islamic government. The high rate of population growth in these countries, creates huge proportion of unsatisfied young population, which my turn to any ideological direction. They were already once disappointed by the military leadership of Nasser-ism, to my opinion Islam will not be more successful. Modern economy, that can secure decent standard of living for wide level of society is based on liberal values and education, the alternative to this is economic misery and political dissatisfaction. The only question is, to what direction will this boiling pot blow up.

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